Monorom Rith, Alexis M. Fillone, and Jose Bienvenido Manuel Biona

DOI: 10.14456/sjst-psu.2020.160

pp. 1233 - 1238

Abstract

Vehicle survival rate models have been extensively built in developed countries and China in view of the availability of
vehicle scrappage data, but many developing countries do not have those data. This paper intends to develop Weibull
distribution-based models of vehicle survivorship for Metro Manila, Philippines, without using the vehicle scrappage data. The
proposed computation procedure can capture the dynamics of average vehicle lifespan. Light-duty passenger vehicles are
classified into two main categories: car (sedan, hatchback) and utility vehicle (SUV, van, minivan, pickup, wagon, Jeepney). The
results highlighted that the average lifespan of the car decreased from 23.23 years in 2007 to 15.22 years in 2016, whereas the
average lifespan of the UV was constant and equal to 14.18 years. Also, the developed models were applied to project the vehicle
stocks, scrapped vehicles, and vehicle sales based on two designed scenarios: historical trend and limitation of the vehicle stocks.